Bahia 1-0 Boston River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.25
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.4
No
61%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
28%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
76%
-7.8pp
17%
Draw
17%
+0.5pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
38%
+1.5pp
61%
BTTS No
62%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Boston River EU Bookmakers 9%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
3.52/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/2.58
+42% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +113%
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
40.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
13.0 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Boston River
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.20 xG 0.04
65% Ball Possession 35%
5 Total Shots 2
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 1
547 Passes 272
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 4
13 Crosses 9
07.03.2025 Boston River Boston River 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Boston River
2.46 xG 0.80
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 1
516 Passes 205
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 6
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Boston River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia nicked a narrow win over Boston River 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 69% of the ball to Boston River's 31%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.46 to 0.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bahia's control.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Boston River?

Bahia 1-0 Boston River in the Copa Libertadores on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Boston River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Bahia 68%, draw 17%, Boston River 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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