Tamworth vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Tamworth v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals
Tamworth vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Tamworth 2-1 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics
Tamworth came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Carlisle United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. At 1.64 (~61%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
On the day, Carlisle United saw more of the ball, 55% to 45%, shots finished 13-4.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 2 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Tamworth against 2.50 for Carlisle United.
Tamworth vs Carlisle United Result & Final Score
Tamworth 2-1 Carlisle United in the England - National League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Tamworth vs Carlisle United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tamworth 27%, draw 25%, Carlisle United 48%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carlisle United), Under 2.5 went the other way.