AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 14 Mar 2026

AE Larissa
1-1 HT 0-1
Asteras Tripolis
📅14/03/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2025/2026

AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.78
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.68
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
11%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.25
X/2
7%
7.82
X/X
10%
3.8
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
13%
6.81
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AE Larissa v Asteras Tripolis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AE Larissa EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +3%
1.42/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.34
-1% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 69%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
17.7 Crosses 17.6
4.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AE Larissa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
294 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.09.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-2 HT 2-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
23.01.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-0 HT 0-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN
18.10.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-3 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
07.06.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 1-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
01.03.2020 AE Larissa AE Larissa 3-0 HT 3-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
08.12.2019 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-1 HT 1-0 AE Larissa AE Larissa YUN

AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AE Larissa
1-1
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.53 xG 0.78
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
401 Passes 155
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AE Larissa and Asteras Tripolis shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AE Larissa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, AE Larissa had 66% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 34%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.53 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Asteras Tripolis led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AE Larissa and 1.50 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis?

AE Larissa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AE Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a AE Larissa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AE Larissa 48%, draw 26%, Asteras Tripolis 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AE Larissa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AE Larissa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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