Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

Arsenal
0-2 HT 0-0
Aston Villa
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.51
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.65
6+ Goals
15%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
22.3
X/1
24%
3.54
X/2
8%
20.0
X/X
9%
8.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.35
2/2
6%
14.75
2/X
7%
22.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
72%
-11.4pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.6pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
2.22/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.15
+16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +1%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
466 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
42.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.3 Crosses 12.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.02 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
441 Passes 270
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
40 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.02.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-4 HT 2-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
31.08.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.03.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
22.10.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
06.02.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
0-2
AWAY Aston Villa
1.64 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
390 Passes 351
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
47 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Arsenal 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arsenal at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.64 to 0.94 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arsenal.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 61%, draw 20%, Aston Villa 19%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
14 Apr 2024
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