Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2024

Bayer Leverkusen
5-0 HT 1-0
Werder Bremen
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.63
Over 2.5
53%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.82
2-3 Goals
39%
2.17
4-5 Goals
24%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
4.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.33
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
28.0
X/1
12%
3.53
X/2
5%
28.5
X/X
11%
10.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
7%
20.5
2/X
6%
26.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
74%
-14.0pp
23%
Draw
16%
+7.4pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
34%
+12.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
66%
-12.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 12%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +10%
2.17/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/2.10
-8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +39%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
545 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.4 Crosses 12.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.05
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
525 Passes 320
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.03.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.09.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
08.05.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
09.01.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
18.05.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-4 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
5-0
AWAY Werder Bremen
3.20 xG 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
570 Passes 421
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen swept aside Werder Bremen 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 56% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 44%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.20 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.83 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?

Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 60%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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