Darmstadt 98 0-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.45
1/2
10%
21.45
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
9%
9.0
X/2
22%
4.18
X/X
9%
5.6
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.23
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
50%
Away Win
53%
-3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 57%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.18/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.76
-25% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
260 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 80%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
20.0 Crosses 27.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Darmstadt 98
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.35 xG 1.64
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
220 Passes 437
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL1
29.04.2017 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
10.12.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Darmstadt 98
0-1
AWAY Freiburg
1.09 xG 0.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
408 Passes 345
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Darmstadt 98 vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg edged past Darmstadt 98 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Darmstadt 98 had 53% of the ball to Freiburg's 47%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.09 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Darmstadt 98 and 0.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Darmstadt 98 vs Freiburg?

Darmstadt 98 0-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Darmstadt 98 vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Darmstadt 98 25%, draw 25%, Freiburg 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg)
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