Magdeburg 2-2 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2024

Magdeburg
2-2 HT 2-0
Hamburg
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Magdeburg vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.74
Over 2.5
46%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.38
No
51%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
6.73
2-3 Goals
41%
2.15
4-5 Goals
22%
2.49
6+ Goals
10%
5.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.73 — our 27% vs market 10.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.31
1/2
8%
20.6
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
12%
7.54
X/2
15%
5.31
X/X
11%
6.18
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
20%
2.66
2/X
9%
12.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
33%
+21.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
67%
-21.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
68%
-19.3pp
51%
BTTS No
32%
+19.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Magdeburg v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.57/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.50
+15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -18%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 81%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
14.8 Crosses 19.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Magdeburg vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Magdeburg
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Hamburg
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.04 xG 1.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
297 Passes 421
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
29.04.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
23.10.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
08.04.2019 Hamburg Hamburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
26.10.2018 Magdeburg Magdeburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2

Magdeburg 2-2 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Magdeburg
2-2
AWAY Hamburg
2.71 xG 2.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
456 Passes 333
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 38
6 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Magdeburg vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Magdeburg and Hamburg couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Magdeburg had 55% of the ball to Hamburg's 45%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 2.71 to 2.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Magdeburg had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Magdeburg and 1.60 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Magdeburg vs Hamburg?

Magdeburg 2-2 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Magdeburg vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Magdeburg 30%, draw 26%, Hamburg 44%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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