St. Pauli 3-4 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2024

St. Pauli
3-4 HT 1-0
Elversberg
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

St. Pauli vs Elversberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.15
X/1
16%
3.69
X/2
9%
14.9
X/X
8%
7.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.9
2/2
5%
11.0
2/X
8%
18.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-5.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Elversberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.64/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.22
-6% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +86%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
473 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.4 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3

St. Pauli vs Elversberg Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.64 xG 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
399 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 0-2 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
13.09.2020 Elversberg Elversberg 4-2 HT 2-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK

St. Pauli 3-4 Elversberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
3-4
AWAY Elversberg
2.20 xG 2.71
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 1
549 Passes 204
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg nicked a narrow win over St. Pauli 4-3 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. St. Pauli carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Pauli had 70% of the ball to Elversberg's 30%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.20 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Pauli and 2.00 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Elversberg?

St. Pauli 3-4 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 60%, draw 21%, Elversberg 19%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Pauli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5
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