Freiburg II 1-1 Dynamo Dresden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.18
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.94
6+ Goals
8%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
14.55
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
3%
22.7
X/1
7%
18.2
X/2
12%
3.4
X/X
13%
7.48
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
42%
1.54
2/X
3%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
11%
+6.9pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.7pp
62%
Away Win
71%
-8.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.3pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 75%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/0.40
-100% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
206 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg II
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.11.2023 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 2-0 HT 1-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
29.04.2023 Freiburg II Freiburg II 1-1 HT 0-1 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
05.11.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg II
1-1
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Freiburg II vs Dynamo Dresden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II and Dynamo Dresden couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dynamo Dresden at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Freiburg II had 46% of the ball to Dynamo Dresden's 54%, shots finished 6-17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Dynamo Dresden led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Freiburg II and 1.33 for Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Freiburg II vs Dynamo Dresden?

Freiburg II 1-1 Dynamo Dresden in the Germany - 3rd Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg II vs Dynamo Dresden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Freiburg II 18%, draw 20%, Dynamo Dresden 62%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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