Sturm Graz II 2-1 SV Horn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.54
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.52
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.75
X/2
11%
5.69
X/X
13%
5.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
2/2
19%
3.46
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY SV Horn EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.58/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.81
-2% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.6
Crosses 21.6
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY SV Horn
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.09.2023 SV Horn SV Horn 4-0 HT 3-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
16.04.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 2-2 HT 1-1 SV Horn SV Horn AU2
22.07.2022 SV Horn SV Horn 2-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz II
2-1
AWAY SV Horn
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz II squeezed past SV Horn 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Sturm Graz II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sturm Graz II had 54% of the ball to SV Horn's 46%, shots finished 16-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, SV Horn led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.67 for SV Horn.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn?

Sturm Graz II 2-1 SV Horn in the Austria - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 38%, draw 26%, SV Horn 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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