Melbourne City 8-0 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.45
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
2.98
Over 2.5
68%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
7.87
2-3 Goals
31%
2.3
4-5 Goals
34%
2.4
6+ Goals
18%
4.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
13%
4.06
X/2
10%
13.8
X/X
8%
8.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
17.7
2/2
6%
8.62
2/X
6%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.7 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-4.5pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.2pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.4pp
32%
Under 2.5
30%
+1.5pp
68%
Over 2.5
70%
-1.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.8pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
2.01/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.08
+24% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
439 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
19.1 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Perth Glory
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.05 xG 1.32
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
486 Passes 307
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 4-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
08.12.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-4 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
05.11.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
04.05.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
02.03.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-2 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
8-0
AWAY Perth Glory
2.60 xG 0.92
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
515 Passes 232
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
35 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City ran out comfortable winners over Perth Glory 8-0. Half-time: 5-0. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 8-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (68%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, Melbourne City had 64% of the ball to Perth Glory's 36%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 2.60 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Melbourne City and 1.83 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Perth Glory?

Melbourne City 8-0 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 60%, draw 19%, Perth Glory 21%. The final score 8-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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