Sebail FK 3-3 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 14 Apr 2024

Sebail FK
3-3 HT 0-2
Kapaz
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Sebail FK vs Kapaz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.38
Over 2.5
45%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.3pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.1pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sebail FK v Kapaz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 29%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.74/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
-53% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.0

Sebail FK vs Kapaz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.02.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-4 HT 1-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
25.11.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
16.09.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-3 HT 0-2 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
01.04.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
31.01.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
29.10.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 3-0 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sebail FK and Kapaz shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Sebail FK at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sebail FK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sebail FK and 0.83 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Kapaz?

Sebail FK 3-3 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sebail FK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 41%, draw 30%, Kapaz 29%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sebail FK), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sebail FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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