Progress / AFA Olaine 1-3 Rigas FS II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.75
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
40%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
20%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
14%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
23%
+12.4pp
25%
Draw
16%
+8.4pp
40%
Away Win
61%
-20.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.2pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Rigas FS II EU Bookmakers 66%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -57% / -57%
0.40/2.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/3.32
-69% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -77%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
213 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 531 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Rigas FS II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
04.11.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 HT 1-2 Rigas FS II Rigas FS II LET1
22.07.2023 Rigas FS II Rigas FS II 1-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rigas FS II got the better of Progress / AFA Olaine 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Rigas FS II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rigas FS II led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Progress / AFA Olaine and 2.00 for Rigas FS II.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II?

Progress / AFA Olaine 1-3 Rigas FS II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rigas FS II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 35%, draw 25%, Rigas FS II 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rigas FS II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rigas FS II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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