Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒18:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 27%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.30/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.82
-15% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +92%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
313 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
22.07.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
20.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
02.04.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
31.10.2021 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-0 HT 2-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
20.08.2021 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-1 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
1-0
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris nicked a narrow win over FK Dainava Alytus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kauno Zalgiris as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 59% of the ball to FK Dainava Alytus's 41%, shots finished 15-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.33 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 48%, draw 27%, FK Dainava Alytus 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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