Podbeskidzie Bielsko 1-2 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.82
Over 2.5
43%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.2
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.67
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 32% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.1pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Podbeskidzie Bielsko EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.31/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.67
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +106%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Podbeskidzie Bielsko
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 7
29.09.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-0 HT 0-0 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Podbeskidzie Bielsko POL1
10.05.2013 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-1 HT 0-1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Podbeskidzie Bielsko POL
10.11.2012 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Podbeskidzie Bielsko 0-1 HT 0-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL
06.05.2012 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Podbeskidzie Bielsko 1-1 HT 0-1 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL
25.11.2011 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-1 HT 0-1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Podbeskidzie Bielsko POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Podbeskidzie Bielsko
1-2
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Podbeskidzie Bielsko vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa nicked a narrow win over Podbeskidzie Bielsko 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Podbeskidzie Bielsko at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Podbeskidzie Bielsko had 59% of the ball to Polonia Warszawa's 41%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Polonia Warszawa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Podbeskidzie Bielsko and 1.60 for Polonia Warszawa.

What was the final score of Podbeskidzie Bielsko vs Polonia Warszawa?

Podbeskidzie Bielsko 1-2 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Podbeskidzie Bielsko vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Podbeskidzie Bielsko win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Podbeskidzie Bielsko 43%, draw 24%, Polonia Warszawa 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Podbeskidzie Bielsko) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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