Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 Apr 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-3 HT 1-2
Cracovia Krakow
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.43
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
19%
4.32
X/2
12%
8.25
X/X
10%
5.12
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
12%
5.99
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Cracovia Krakow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
2.08/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.99
+28% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.9 Crosses 18.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
356 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-4 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.05.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
05.11.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
19.02.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
21.08.2021 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
09.04.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-1 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 Cracovia Krakow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-3
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.68 xG 2.93
71% Ball Possession 29%
20 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 4
478 Passes 155
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 28
40 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 71% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 29%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 2.68 to 2.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.17 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 45%, draw 26%, Cracovia Krakow 29%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5
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