Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.4
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
56%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
46%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
10.5
1/2
6%
22.3
1/X
6%
18.75
X/1
6%
13.1
X/2
21%
3.58
X/X
9%
6.12
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.79
2/X
4%
17.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
15%
+9.7pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.1pp
56%
Away Win
64%
-7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +18%
1.00/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.27/0.96
+17% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +25%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
226 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 88%
12.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
11.3 Crosses 21.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.04 xG 2.23
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
303 Passes 477
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
10.04.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
09.10.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-4 HT 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
15.05.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 0-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
22.12.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
13.02.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-2
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.92 xG 2.38
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
291 Passes 352
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 39
6 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe edged past Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 45% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 55%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.92 to 2.38 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.00 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 25%, draw 19%, Fenerbahçe 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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