Defensor Sporting 2-1 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.9pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.92/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.44
+20% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
376 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CA River Plate
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.04.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-2 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URUK
30.11.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-1 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
24.06.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
30.04.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
29.09.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URUK
11.09.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
2-1
AWAY CA River Plate
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past CA River Plate 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 39% of the ball to CA River Plate's 61%, shots finished 8-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Defensor Sporting and 0.50 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs CA River Plate?

Defensor Sporting 2-1 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 50%, draw 24%, CA River Plate 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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