Atletico Madrid 4-2 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 Apr 2025

Atletico Madrid
4-2 HT 2-1
Valladolid
📅14/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
65%
1.16
Draw
21%
7.13
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.59
Over
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.6
No
52%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
21%
5.49
2-3
41%
2.02
4-5
25%
2.6
6+
13%
6.03
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.49 — our 21% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.21
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
35.0
X/1
15%
3.74
X/2
5%
35.0
X/X
7%
11.6
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
5%
35.0
2/X
6%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Atletico Madrid win — 65% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
82%
-17.1pp
21%
Draw
11%
+9.3pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+7.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
34%
+13.2pp
52%
BTTS No
66%
-13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Valladolid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -10%
1.95/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.27
-10% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -23%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
488 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
18.7 Crosses 14.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Valladolid
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.83 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
420 Passes 375
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Valladolid Valladolid 0-5 HT 0-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
30.04.2023 Valladolid Valladolid 2-5 HT 1-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.01.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 3-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
22.05.2021 Valladolid Valladolid 1-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
05.12.2020 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
20.06.2020 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1

Atletico Madrid 4-2 Valladolid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
4-2
AWAY Valladolid
3.40 xG 1.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
24 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
543 Passes 451
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
35 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid saw off Valladolid 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 54% of the ball to Valladolid's 46%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 3.40 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.50 for Valladolid.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid?

Atletico Madrid 4-2 Valladolid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 65%, draw 21%, Valladolid 15%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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