Bayer Leverkusen (K) 1-1 Köln (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2025

Bayer Leverkusen (K)
1-1 HT 0-1
Köln (K)
📅14/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Germany - Women's Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Köln (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
64%
1.22
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.23
Over
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
48%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
3%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Bayer Leverkusen (K) win — 64% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
78%
-13.4pp
23%
Draw
16%
+7.4pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.6pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayer Leverkusen (K) v Köln (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K) EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.12/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/2.31
-38% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -13%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
476 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 200 · 68%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
35.0 Crosses 10.4
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Köln (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K)
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Köln (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.52 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
272 Passes 292
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2024 Köln (K) Köln (K) 1-2 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (K) Bayer Leverkusen (K) ALKB
18.03.2024 Bayer Leverkusen (K) Bayer Leverkusen (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Köln (K) Köln (K) ALKB

Bayer Leverkusen (K) 1-1 Köln (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K)
1-1
AWAY Köln (K)
1.26 xG 0.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
313 Passes 198
72% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Köln (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen (K) and Köln (K) shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen (K) at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen (K) had 59% of the ball to Köln (K)'s 41%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.26 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen (K) and 0.50 for Köln (K).

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Köln (K)?

Bayer Leverkusen (K) 1-1 Köln (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Köln (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen (K) 64%, draw 23%, Köln (K) 13%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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