Progress / AFA Olaine 0-1 Tukums II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2025

Progress / AFA Olaine
0-1
Tukums II
📅14/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2025

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Tukums II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.39
No
41%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-8.9pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Progress / AFA Olaine v Tukums II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Tukums II EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.69/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/2.33
+42% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -37%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Tukums II Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Tukums II
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
The Meetings
19.04.2024 Tukums II Tukums II 2-0 HT 1-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
02.09.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 3-1 HT 3-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
06.05.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 7-2 HT 1-0 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tukums II nicked a narrow win over Progress / AFA Olaine 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Tukums II found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tukums II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Progress / AFA Olaine and 2.33 for Tukums II.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Tukums II?

Progress / AFA Olaine 0-1 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Tukums II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progress / AFA Olaine win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 39%, draw 27%, Tukums II 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Progress / AFA Olaine) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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