Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.95
Over
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.47
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.2
6+
10%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.47 — our 28% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.06
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
15%
5.17
X/2
9%
6.86
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
15%
4.73
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec The Market 33%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.45/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
23.7 Crosses 19.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.51 xG 1.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
298 Passes 287
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 2-1 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
30.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
08.05.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-2 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
20.11.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-3 HT 1-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
27.02.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
19.09.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 4-2 HT 2-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
3-2
AWAY Stal Mielec
2.23 xG 1.75
63% Ball Possession 37%
29 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
457 Passes 246
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk edged past Stal Mielec 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lechia Gdansk as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 63% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 37%, shots finished 29-7, expected goals 2.23 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.50 for Stal Mielec.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?

Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 42%, draw 28%, Stal Mielec 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lechia Gdansk), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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