Stal Mielec 2-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 5 Oct 2024

Stal Mielec
2-1 HT 0-1
Lechia Gdansk
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.91
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
19%
4.78
X/2
10%
6.98
X/X
13%
4.56
2/1
11%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.96
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stal Mielec v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 31%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.56/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.69
+14% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
363 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.6 Crosses 19.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
1.41 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
286 Passes 301
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
08.05.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-2 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
20.11.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-3 HT 1-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
27.02.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
19.09.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 4-2 HT 2-2 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL

Stal Mielec 2-1 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.63 xG 0.42
52% Ball Possession 48%
30 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 2
296 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
54 Box Touches 17
40 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec nicked a narrow win over Lechia Gdansk 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stal Mielec as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 52% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 48%, shots finished 30-5, expected goals 2.63 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stal Mielec's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Stal Mielec and 2.40 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?

Stal Mielec 2-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 43%, draw 26%, Lechia Gdansk 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stal Mielec) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✗ Under 2.5
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