Lech Poznan 1-2 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.93
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.55
X/1
25%
3.7
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
11%
5.74
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
13%
8.96
2/X
5%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.91/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.66
+9% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
456 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 71%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
22.6 Crosses 19.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-2
AWAY Motor Lublin
1.96 xG 1.29
73% Ball Possession 27%
25 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
616 Passes 183
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
47 Box Touches 8
46 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin squeezed past Lech Poznan 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 73% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 27%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 1.96 to 1.29 — on chances, Lech Poznan could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?

Lech Poznan 1-2 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 53%, draw 22%, Motor Lublin 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lech Poznan), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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