Birmingham Legion 3-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.03
Over
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No Pick
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.7
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.07
6+
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 32%
-22% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.40/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.21
-22% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
368 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 81%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.5 Crosses 12.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
1W-0D-1L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.29 xG 1.27
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
291 Passes 466
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
02.06.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-3 HT 1-2 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
21.05.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
3-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.44 xG 1.71
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
364 Passes 446
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 13
8 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion got the better of El Paso Locomotive 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Birmingham Legion as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 45% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 55%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 2.44 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.50 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs El Paso Locomotive?

Birmingham Legion 3-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 46%, draw 23%, El Paso Locomotive 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham Legion) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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