Sporting Cristal 0-1 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.8
Over
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.72
No
49%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.03
2-3
38%
1.75
4-5
24%
3.57
6+
8%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.0
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
11%
13.2
X/1
12%
5.88
X/2
13%
5.62
X/X
12%
4.52
2/1
5%
30.0
2/2
15%
3.74
2/X
4%
13.1
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno The Market 40%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Great
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Great
1.13 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.27
1.21 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.78
Bad Attackvs comparable teams Weak
Average Defensevs comparable teams Great
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
252 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 71%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.4 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.25 xG 3.29
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 25
3 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
381 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 47
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.04.2025 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
0-1
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.10 xG 1.08
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
412 Passes 149
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 10
6 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Sporting Cristal vs Cerro Porteno
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Cerro Porteno nicked a narrow win over Sporting Cristal 1-0 on the road.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Cerro Porteno made the difference.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. At 1.72 (~58%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 68% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 32%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.10 to 1.08.

Sporting Cristal vs Cerro Porteno Result & Final Score

Sporting Cristal 0-1 Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Sporting Cristal vs Cerro Porteno Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 35%, draw 27%, Cerro Porteno 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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