Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 14 May 2025

Pogon Szczecin
3-0 HT 1-0
Motor Lublin
📅14/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
7.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.62
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
18.05
X/1
13%
4.02
X/2
7%
16.0
X/X
9%
7.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.7
2/2
7%
12.9
2/X
6%
20.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-7.5pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.9pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pogon Szczecin v Motor Lublin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 17%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.08/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.84
+25% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
23.7 Crosses 18.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.99 xG 2.03
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
533 Passes 305
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 4-2 HT 3-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-0
AWAY Motor Lublin
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin ran out comfortable winners over Motor Lublin 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 57% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 43%, shots finished 14-8.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 59%, draw 22%, Motor Lublin 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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