Motor Lublin 4-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.36
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
9%
6.57
X/2
7%
5.04
X/X
9%
5.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
30.0
2/2
22%
3.01
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 46%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.30/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.10
+23% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 82%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
27.2 Crosses 21.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
4-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.03 xG 0.99
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
305 Passes 533
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin got the better of Pogon Szczecin 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Motor Lublin made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 38% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 62%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 2.03 to 0.99.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Motor Lublin 4-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 36%, draw 27%, Pogon Szczecin 37%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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