Mtibwa Sugar 4-3 KMC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi, 14 May 2026

📅14/05/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.02
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
46%
-12.2pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mtibwa Sugar EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY KMC EU Bookmakers 28%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.30/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.20
+22% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mtibwa Sugar
0W-2D-1L
AWAY KMC
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2025 KMC KMC 0-0 Mtibwa Sugar Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi
16.04.2024 Mtibwa Sugar 0-1 KMC KMC Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi
18.12.2021 Mtibwa Sugar 0-0 KMC KMC Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi
POST-MATCH Mtibwa Sugar vs KMC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mtibwa Sugar edged past KMC 4-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 33% / 33% — and on the day Mtibwa Sugar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, KMC led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Mtibwa Sugar and 0.33 for KMC.

What was the final score of Mtibwa Sugar vs KMC?

Mtibwa Sugar 4-3 KMC in the Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi on 14/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mtibwa Sugar vs KMC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mtibwa Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split Mtibwa Sugar 33%, draw 33%, KMC 33%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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