Vila Nova 2-1 Avai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 14 Jul 2024

Vila Nova
2-1 HT 0-1
Avai
📅14/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Vila Nova vs Avai Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.52
Over 2.5
33%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.13
No
65%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
5.35
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.28 — our 40% vs market 37.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+5.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-5.1pp
35%
BTTS Yes
43%
-7.9pp
65%
BTTS No
57%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Avai — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Avai EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
1.23/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.04
-34% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
20.0 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Vila Nova vs Avai Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Avai
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.39 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 368
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-1 Avai Avai BR2
04.05.2023 Avai Avai 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
25.08.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
07.06.2021 Avai Avai 1-1 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
08.08.2018 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
14.04.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2

Vila Nova 2-1 Avai — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-1
AWAY Avai
0.79 xG 1.15
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
392 Passes 285
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Avai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Avai 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 56% of the ball to Avai's 44%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.79 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vila Nova and 0.50 for Avai.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Avai?

Vila Nova 2-1 Avai in the Brazil - Serie B on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Avai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 44%, draw 31%, Avai 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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14 Jul 2024
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