Jaro 5-2 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 29% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.1pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 31%
-14% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +19%
1.31/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.65
-20% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.05.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.09.2022 Jaro Jaro 4-2 HT 2-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FINY
26.08.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.06.2022 Jaro Jaro 2-2 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
08.11.2020 Jaro Jaro 2-3 HT 0-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
30.08.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
5-2
AWAY KTP Kotka
31% Ball Possession 69%
14 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jaro vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jaro ran out comfortable winners over KTP Kotka 5-2. Half-time: 4-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Jaro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Jaro had 31% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 69%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Jaro and 1.83 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of Jaro vs KTP Kotka?

Jaro 5-2 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Ykkönen on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Jaro 43%, draw 31%, KTP Kotka 26%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jaro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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