Dunfermline Athletic 4-1 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 14 Jul 2026

📅14/07/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.25
Draw
13%
5.71
Away
10%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.59
Over 2.5
67%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
5.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.51
6+ Goals
18%
5.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1/2
2%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
5%
2/1
12%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
76%
Home Win
76%
+0.2pp
13%
Draw
15%
-1.8pp
10%
Away Win
9%
+1.5pp
33%
Under 2.5
35%
-1.8pp
67%
Over 2.5
65%
+1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 11%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.51/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/3.02
-14% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
435 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 153 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunfermline Athletic
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Dumbarton
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
19.07.2025 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-4 HT 0-2 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKLK
17.07.2021 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 5-1 HT 3-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKLK
06.10.2020 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-1 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKLK
28.04.2018 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 4-0 HT 3-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKCL
06.01.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-1 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
25.11.2017 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 2-2 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İKCL
POST-MATCH Dunfermline Athletic vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunfermline Athletic swept aside Dumbarton 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dunfermline Athletic as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dunfermline Athletic had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Dunfermline Athletic and 0.50 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Dunfermline Athletic vs Dumbarton?

Dunfermline Athletic 4-1 Dumbarton in the Scotland - League Cup on 14/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunfermline Athletic vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunfermline Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Dunfermline Athletic 76%, draw 13%, Dumbarton 10%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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