Plymouth Argyle 3-0 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 14 Aug 2024

📅14/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.38
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.12
2-3 Goals
35%
1.96
4-5 Goals
30%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.8
X/1
14%
3.82
X/2
13%
13.35
X/X
11%
6.89
2/1
7%
20.3
2/2
6%
9.52
2/X
7%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.9pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 19%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.69/0.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.62
+34% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -27%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
Crosses 16.0
Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 0.93
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
347 Passes 239
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-5 HT 1-3 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle HAZ
21.02.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İNTK
21.01.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 4-2 HT 2-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
26.12.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
22.03.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-0 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
26.12.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-0
AWAY Cheltenham Town
3.51 xG 0.28
70% Ball Possession 30%
32 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 5
469 Passes 141
86% Pass Accuracy 62%
42 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle swept aside Cheltenham Town 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Plymouth Argyle as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 70% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 30%, shots finished 32-9, expected goals 3.51 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 0.67 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Cheltenham Town?

Plymouth Argyle 3-0 Cheltenham Town in the England - League Cup on 14/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 53%, draw 23%, Cheltenham Town 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Plymouth Argyle), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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