Univ College Dublin 1-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 14 Aug 2026

📅14/08/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
15%
4.48
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
57%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
2.03
Over
40%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
45%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
15%
Home Win
20%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.3pp
57%
Away Win
59%
-1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
45%
+14.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
55%
-14.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.7pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Univ College Dublin The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City The Market 62%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.96/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.26/0.96
+12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +17%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
182 · 61% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Univ College Dublin
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Derry City
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.83
0.51 xG 1.97
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
204 Passes 521
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
6 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2023 Derry City Derry City 6-0 HT 1-0 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İRL
06.09.2023 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-5 HT 0-3 Derry City Derry City İRL
19.05.2023 Derry City Derry City 4-1 HT 1-0 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İRL
06.03.2023 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-4 HT 0-2 Derry City Derry City İRL
02.09.2022 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 1-0 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin İRL
24.06.2022 Univ College Dublin Univ College Dublin 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Univ College Dublin
1-2
AWAY Derry City
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Univ College Dublin vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City squeezed past Univ College Dublin 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 10-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Univ College Dublin and 3.83 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Univ College Dublin vs Derry City?

Univ College Dublin 1-2 Derry City in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 14/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Univ College Dublin vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Univ College Dublin 15%, draw 28%, Derry City 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İRK More Ireland - FAI Cup
14 Aug 2026
21:45 Galway United vs Bray Wanderers Analysis →
21:45 Waterford vs Athlone Analysis →