Thionville Lusitanos 4-3 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Fransa - Ligue 3, 14 Aug 2026

Thionville Lusitanos
4-3 HT 1-2
Caen
📅14/08/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Fransa - Ligue 3 – 2026/2027

Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.12
Draw
18%
3.28
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.8
Over
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.74
No
43%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.99
2-3
38%
1.73
4-5
21%
3.56
6+
12%
14.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.08
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1 ✗
23%
4.98
X/2
14%
6.71
X/X
8%
4.51
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.9
2/X
5%
13.6
Value flag · X/1 at 4.98 — our 23% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Thionville Lusitanos v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thionville Lusitanos The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen The Market 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
REVIEW Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Thionville Lusitanos squeezed past Caen 4-3. From 1-2 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time. With 7 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Thionville Lusitanos as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: both teams to score (57%) landed.

Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen Result & Final Score

Thionville Lusitanos 4-3 Caen in the Fransa - Ligue 3 on 14/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Thionville Lusitanos win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Thionville Lusitanos 51%, draw 18%, Caen 31%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thionville Lusitanos), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thionville Lusitanos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
Fransa - Ligue 3 More Fransa - Ligue 3
14 Aug 2026
20:00 Amiens SC vs La Roche-Sur-Yon Analysis →
20:00 Aubagne AB vs Bastia Analysis →
20:00 Cannes vs Fleury-Merogis Analysis →
20:00 Orleans vs Rouen Analysis →
20:00 Quevilly vs Concarneau Analysis →
20:00 Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse 01 Analysis →