Milan 4-0 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 14 Sep 2024

Milan
4-0 HT 4-0
Venezia
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Venezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.62
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.49
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
21.85
X/1
19%
3.58
X/2
7%
19.6
X/X
7%
8.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.2
2/2
5%
14.3
2/X
6%
21.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
72%
-8.3pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.1pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Venezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.84/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.86
-4% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
22.2 Crosses 12.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8

Milan vs Venezia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Venezia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.57 xG 0.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
559 Passes 275
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 8
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.01.2022 Venezia Venezia 0-3 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.09.2021 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Venezia Venezia İTA
24.02.2002 Venezia Venezia 1-4 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
14.10.2001 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Venezia Venezia İTA

Milan 4-0 Venezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
4-0
AWAY Venezia
2.25 xG 0.25
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
523 Passes 285
92% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milan vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan ran out comfortable winners over Venezia 4-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Milan had 62% of the ball to Venezia's 38%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 2.25 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Milan and 0.50 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Milan vs Venezia?

Milan 4-0 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Milan 64%, draw 20%, Venezia 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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