Villingen 2-5 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
57%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
23%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villingen EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 51%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.01/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.86
-27% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +36%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
242 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villingen
2-5
AWAY Freiburg II
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villingen vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II swept aside Villingen 5-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Freiburg II as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Villingen had 39% of the ball to Freiburg II's 61%, shots finished 9-13.

What was the final score of Villingen vs Freiburg II?

Villingen 2-5 Freiburg II in the Germany - Regional League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villingen vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Villingen 31%, draw 25%, Freiburg II 44%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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