Septemvri Sofia 3-2 Slavia Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
52%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
52%
Away Win
53%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Slavia Sofia EU Bookmakers 57%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.39/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-56% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -19%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Septemvri Sofia
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Slavia Sofia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2023 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 1-2 HT 0-1 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia BUL1
21.06.2018 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 1-1 HT 0-0 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Septemvri Sofia
3-2
AWAY Slavia Sofia
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Septemvri Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia edged past Slavia Sofia 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Slavia Sofia at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Septemvri Sofia had 50% of the ball to Slavia Sofia's 50%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Slavia Sofia led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.50 for Slavia Sofia.

What was the final score of Septemvri Sofia vs Slavia Sofia?

Septemvri Sofia 3-2 Slavia Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Septemvri Sofia vs Slavia Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Slavia Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Septemvri Sofia 24%, draw 24%, Slavia Sofia 52%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Slavia Sofia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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