PFC Beroe 0-1 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
24%
2.88
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.41
Over 2.5
34%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.33
No
61%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+5.6pp
24%
Draw
31%
-7.7pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+2.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
67%
-1.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
33%
+1.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
39%
-0.1pp
61%
BTTS No
61%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 49%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.45/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/0.81
+58% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / +16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PFC Beroe
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-3 HT 0-2 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
30.09.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 4-1 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PFC Beroe
0-1
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PFC Beroe vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv edged past PFC Beroe 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Botev Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, PFC Beroe had 40% of the ball to Botev Plovdiv's 60%, shots finished 7-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Botev Plovdiv led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for PFC Beroe and 3.50 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of PFC Beroe vs Botev Plovdiv?

PFC Beroe 0-1 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PFC Beroe vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split PFC Beroe 29%, draw 24%, Botev Plovdiv 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
14 Sep 2024
17:30 Septemvri Sofia vs Slavia Sofia Analysis →