Felgueiras 1932 1-2 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 31%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.29/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.05
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses 21.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Felgueiras 1932
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Chaves
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.09.2021 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 2-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Felgueiras 1932
1-2
AWAY Chaves
0.51 xG 2.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
4 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
104 Passes 182
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves nicked a narrow win over Felgueiras 1932 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Felgueiras 1932 at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Felgueiras 1932 had 59% of the ball to Chaves's 41%, shots finished 4-10, expected goals 0.51 to 2.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chaves's control.

What was the final score of Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves?

Felgueiras 1932 1-2 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Felgueiras 1932 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Felgueiras 1932 41%, draw 27%, Chaves 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Felgueiras 1932) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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