Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty Lviv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
72%
-16.3pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.1pp
21%
Away Win
10%
+10.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Karpaty Lviv EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
2.23/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.13
+11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Karpaty Lviv
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
02.11.2019 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv 0-3 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
04.08.2019 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv UKR
10.03.2019 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 5-0 HT 3-0 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv UKR
28.09.2018 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv 1-6 HT 0-5 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
04.03.2018 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv 0-3 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
01.10.2017 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 HT 1-0 Karpaty Lviv Karpaty Lviv UKR
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk swept aside Karpaty Lviv 5-2. Half-time: 4-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.17 for Karpaty Lviv.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv?

Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty Lviv in the Ukraine - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty Lviv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, draw 24%, Karpaty Lviv 21%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✓ Over 2.5
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