Virtus Entella 1-0 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.65
2-3 Goals
43%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 31% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
13%
4.64
X/2
10%
7.47
X/X
12%
4.01
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
14%
5.9
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Virtus Entella EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.67/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.27
-6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
23.6 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Virtus Entella
1-0
AWAY Mantova
1.60 xG 0.74
28% Ball Possession 72%
15 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
173 Passes 541
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
19 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Virtus Entella vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Virtus Entella edged past Mantova 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Virtus Entella as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Virtus Entella had 28% of the ball to Mantova's 72%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.60 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

Virtus Entella 1-0 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Virtus Entella win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Virtus Entella 45%, draw 27%, Mantova 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Virtus Entella), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Virtus Entella) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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