Aalborg 4-0 Middelfart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.5
X/1
19%
3.97
X/2
6%
11.5
X/X
9%
5.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.35
2/2
12%
9.33
2/X
6%
17.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Middelfart EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.53/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.02
+19% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
16.6 Crosses 11.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Middelfart
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.89 xG 0.24
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
527 Passes 278
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2022 Middelfart Middelfart 1-2 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
20.09.2017 Middelfart Middelfart 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalborg
4-0
AWAY Middelfart
2.02 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
400 Passes 438
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs Middelfart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg swept aside Middelfart 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aalborg as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Aalborg had 48% of the ball to Middelfart's 52%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 2.02 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aalborg had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aalborg and 0.50 for Middelfart.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs Middelfart?

Aalborg 4-0 Middelfart in the Denmark 1st Division on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs Middelfart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 55%, draw 23%, Middelfart 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aalborg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aalborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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