Hillerod 3-0 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+5.0pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.2pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.44/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.43
-2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
261 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 78%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
16.0 Crosses 16.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.31 xG 0.61
62% Ball Possession 38%
24 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
516 Passes 284
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 20
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 1-2 HT 0-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
29.09.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
3-0
AWAY Esbjerg
2.31 xG 0.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
492 Passes 442
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 16
6 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod ran out comfortable winners over Esbjerg 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hillerod had 51% of the ball to Esbjerg's 49%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.31 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Esbjerg led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hillerod and 1.50 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Hillerod 3-0 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 45%, draw 21%, Esbjerg 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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