Hillerod 1-2 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.1
Over 2.5
61%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.19
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.72
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.69
1/2
10%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.71
X/2
8%
7.43
X/X
11%
5.34
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
12%
5.07
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
39%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.81
-17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
19.7 Crosses 13.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.77 xG 0.33
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
548 Passes 247
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
1-2
AWAY Esbjerg
2.86 xG 0.90
59% Ball Possession 41%
33 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 2
484 Passes 320
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 17
38 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg edged past Hillerod 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Hillerod had 59% of the ball to Esbjerg's 41%, shots finished 33-10, expected goals 2.86 to 0.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hillerod.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Hillerod 1-2 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 47%, draw 23%, Esbjerg 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hillerod) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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