ND Primorje 4-1 Aluminij — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
42%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.49
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
42%
Away Win
32%
+9.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Aluminij EU Bookmakers 36%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.36/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.19
+2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
313 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ND Primorje
4-1
AWAY Aluminij
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH ND Primorje vs Aluminij
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ND Primorje ran out comfortable winners over Aluminij 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aluminij at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, ND Primorje had 45% of the ball to Aluminij's 55%, shots finished 10-13.

What was the final score of ND Primorje vs Aluminij?

ND Primorje 4-1 Aluminij in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ND Primorje vs Aluminij?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aluminij win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split ND Primorje 36%, draw 22%, Aluminij 42%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aluminij) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aluminij) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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