Almirante Brown 1-2 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 14 Oct 2024

📅14/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.09
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.41
Over 2.5
30%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
2.67
No
70%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
46%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
22%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
17%
+4.2pp
35%
Draw
28%
+7.3pp
44%
Away Win
56%
-11.5pp
70%
Under 2.5
67%
+3.0pp
30%
Over 2.5
33%
-3.0pp
30%
BTTS Yes
33%
-2.9pp
70%
BTTS No
67%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almirante Brown EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 59%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
0.69/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.00/1.00
-9% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -18%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
245 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almirante Brown
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
26.05.2024 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-2 HT 0-2 Almirante Brown Almirante Brown ARJPBN
01.03.2022 Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Almirante Brown vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Rafaela edged past Almirante Brown 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Rafaela as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (70%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Almirante Brown had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Almirante Brown and 0.50 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Almirante Brown vs Atletico Rafaela?

Almirante Brown 1-2 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 14/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almirante Brown vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Rafaela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Almirante Brown 21%, draw 35%, Atletico Rafaela 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Rafaela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Rafaela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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