Belçika vs İtalya Prediction — Model Probabilities
Belçika v İtalya — Team-Based Signals
Belçika vs İtalya Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Belçika 0-1 İtalya — Actual Match Statistics
İtalya shaded a tight game against Belçika 1-0 on the road.
The model refused to pick a side here (37% / 31% / 32%); İtalya picked one for it. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, Belçika had 47% of the ball to İtalya's 53%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.52 to 2.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold İtalya's control.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, İtalya led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Belçika and 2.00 for İtalya.
Belçika vs İtalya Result & Final Score
Belçika 0 - 1 İtalya in the UEFA Nations League on 14/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Belçika vs İtalya Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Belçika win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Belçika 37%, draw 31%, İtalya 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Belçika), BTTS Yes went the other way.