İtalya vs Belçika Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
İtalya v Belçika — Team-Based Signals
İtalya vs Belçika Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Belçika
AVUL
1-2
HT 1-2
İtalya
AVR
3-1
HT 1-1
İtalya
HAZ
3-1
HT 2-0
Belçika
HAZ
İtalya 2-2 Belçika — Actual Match Statistics
İtalya and Belçika shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was İtalya at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, İtalya had 38% of the ball to Belçika's 62%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.84 to 0.97.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, İtalya had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for İtalya and 1.50 for Belçika.
What was the final score of İtalya vs Belçika?
İtalya 2-2 Belçika in the UEFA Uluslar League on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for İtalya vs Belçika?
Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split İtalya 45%, draw 28%, Belçika 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya), Under 2.5 went the other way.