İtalya 2-2 Belçika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.0
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
23%
3.89
6+
9%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.55
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
20%
4.3
X/2
8%
8.24
X/X
13%
4.31
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
6.42
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Belçika EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.44/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.51
-9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
405 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
17.3 Crosses 11.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Belçika
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.57 xG 1.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
426 Passes 484
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.10.2021 İtalya İtalya 2-1 HT 0-0 Belçika Belçika AVUL
02.07.2021 Belçika Belçika 1-2 HT 1-2 İtalya İtalya AVR
13.11.2015 Belçika Belçika 3-1 HT 1-1 İtalya İtalya HAZ
30.05.2008 İtalya İtalya 3-1 HT 2-0 Belçika Belçika HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya
2-2
AWAY Belçika
1.84 xG 0.97
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 12
307 Passes 516
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 40
4 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İtalya vs Belçika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya and Belçika shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was İtalya at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, İtalya had 38% of the ball to Belçika's 62%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.84 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, İtalya had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for İtalya and 1.50 for Belçika.

What was the final score of İtalya vs Belçika?

İtalya 2-2 Belçika in the UEFA Uluslar League on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya vs Belçika?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split İtalya 45%, draw 28%, Belçika 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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