Raja Beni Mellal 1-1 USM Oujda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Morocco - Botola 2, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.59
Over
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
45%
4-5
17%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-2.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+0.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.2pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Raja Beni Mellal EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Oujda EU Bookmakers 20%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
3.42/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.02
+147% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +35%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Raja Beni Mellal
0W-1D-1L
AWAY USM Oujda
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
18.11.2023 USM Oujda 1-1 HT 1-0 Raja Beni Mellal Raja Beni Mellal FAS2
02.12.2022 USM Oujda 1-0 HT 1-0 Raja Beni Mellal Raja Beni Mellal FAS2
POST-MATCH Raja Beni Mellal vs USM Oujda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Raja Beni Mellal and USM Oujda shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Raja Beni Mellal carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, USM Oujda led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Raja Beni Mellal and 1.00 for USM Oujda.

What was the final score of Raja Beni Mellal vs USM Oujda?

Raja Beni Mellal 1-1 USM Oujda in the Morocco - Botola 2 on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Raja Beni Mellal vs USM Oujda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Raja Beni Mellal win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Raja Beni Mellal 55%, draw 28%, USM Oujda 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Raja Beni Mellal), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Raja Beni Mellal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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